ICIS World Polyolefins Conference live: Market volatility deepens amid geopolitical tensions

As the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) World Polyolefins Conference (April 21–22) takes place in Brussels, Belgium, ICIS tells us that the disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade are likely to impact polyolefin supply chains for months to come. 

The two-day event brings together stakeholders from across the global PE and PP value chains for high-level discussion.

The conference delves into overcapacity pressures, the implementation of circularity strategies, and the ongoing Iran war and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, all of which are contributing to volatility in global polyolefins markets.

ICIS says that the disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are increasing feedstock uncertainty and complicating trade routes. These developments are adding further strain on European producers, who are confronting elevated energy costs and weakening regional demand.

Ben Monroe-Lake, senior editor for PE and PP Europe at ICIS, tells Packaging Insights: “The disruption to the Strait of Hormuz will define the outlook for most of this year in terms of supply dynamics. Even when the conflict is over, logistics will take months to revert, and repairs in the Middle East could take years. Demand destruction could also follow as significant price increases cascade across the value chain.”

Boosting Europe’s competitiveness

Leading industry players, including LyondellBasell, TotalEnergies, Borealis, and Dow, are attending the conference, offering real-world insight into the challenges and opportunities shaping the sector.

The conference navigates how the geopolitical tensions could reshape project timelines, trade flows, and operating rates across key regions. It also discusses market forces, policy developments, and technological advances impacting the future of polyolefins.

ICIS notes that higher energy costs, regulatory transformation, and intensifying international competition are challenging Europe’s production base.

However, European producers can increase their competitiveness by “rethinking operating models, improving energy integration, diversifying feedstocks, and focusing on higher-value applications.”

Reaching recycling targets

In the meantime, ICIS says that EU regulatory requirements across the polyolefins sector are accelerating mechanical and chemical recycling initiatives.

ICIS says European sustainability targets are moving from ambition to implementation.Egor Dementev, EMEA analyst team lead for Plastics Recycling and Sustainability at ICIS, tells us: “According to our projections, 3.6 million metric tons by 2030 and 7.6 million metric tons by 2040 will be required to meet the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation targets for recycled PE and PP.”

“That includes 0.4 million metric tons and 1.2 million metric tons by 2030 and 2040, respectively, for contact-sensitive applications. This potentially creates a big opportunity for polyolefin recyclers, particularly given the anticipated supply and demand gap under the current rate of domestic investment.”

“At the same time, the challenging and volatile macro environment, as well as some significant remaining regulatory uncertainties, including the enforcement mechanisms, the status of chemical recycling, the role of imports, and interplay with bio-based polymers, make some players delay final investment decisions for capacity building.”

Fast-changing global context

The conference also looks into major capacity expansions in China. ICIS points out that the expansions are “set to shift global supply dynamics, with the country poised to become a net exporter of PP.”

As end-use markets evolve rapidly, performance expectations and quality requirements are also changing. The conference examines how the packaging sector is influencing material innovation and value creation across polyolefin production. .

Lorenzo Meazza, senior analyst at ICIS, says: “Polyolefins markets are at a pivotal moment. Industry leaders must balance short-term resilience with long-term strategic repositioning.”

“This year’s conference will provide the insight and dialogue needed to define Europe’s competitive future in a rapidly changing global context.”