Global plastic waste set to double by 2050, study warns ahead of final UN treaty talks

Mismanaged plastic waste will nearly double to 121 million tons by 2050 unless limits are imposed on plastic production, predicts a recent scientific paper. The study underscores the importance of the upcoming UN Global Plastics Treaty talks in Busan, South Korea, which are seen as a key opportunity for global leaders to adopt measures to curtail the plastic crisis.

The research published in Science, which utilizes global and regional plastics datasets alongside socio-economic data and machine learning, foresees a substantial increase in annual GHG emissions. Without intervention, emissions from the plastic system are expected to rise by 37%, reaching 3.35 gigatons of CO2 equivalent over the next 25 years. 

Douglas McCauley, associate professor at the University of California Santa Barbara and the director of the Benioff Ocean Initiative, tells Packaging Insights: “It is clear that, without a treaty, plastic pollution will continue to grow. This will create ever-growing challenges to the environment, human health and environmental justice – and ever growing opposition to this problem. The treaty represents a once-in-a-lifetime chance to come together to create a more sustainable future for this industry.”

“In addition to tackling the problems of plastic pollution, the treaty presents an exciting opportunity to bolster business by creating stable, predictable and standardized guidelines on the future use of plastics – instead of today’s fractured mosaic of regulations on packaging and other plastics.”

Data-driven solutions

Right ahead of the Fifth Session of the UN Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee, Pottinger and his team simulated the impact of eight candidate treaty policies and discovered that just four could reduce mismanaged plastic waste by 91% (86% – 98%) and gross plastic-related GHG emissions by one third.

These measures include a global cap on virgin plastic production, investments in waste infrastructure, the introduction of a packaging tax and a mandate for minimum recycled content. 

“The impact that we’re really hoping to see on the treaty, and I think that we’ve started to see in these individual conversations, is just that it is data informed. So that as the treaty comes to its final conclusion before ratification, folks are aware of how much progress they’ve actually made, at least according to the best science that we have available right now,” says Samuel Pottinger, senior data scientist at UC Berkeley’s Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science and Environment.

The innovative financial instruments announced at COP28 may help countries create the fiscal space needed to invest in climate resilience.“There is a sense of inevitability that plastic is so ingrained in our way of life, so how could a treaty like this ever be effective? If nothing else, the four-policy package shows that it is possible. The permutation of policies used to get there might be different than what we anticipated. But we don’t want anyone to hide behind the idea that it isn’t possible.”

Environmental justice for all

Despite the promise shown by the policy simulations, Pottinger’s team acknowledges the challenges that come with implementation. Data gaps, particularly at regional levels, complicate accurate forecasting. The study emphasizes that measures to improve data transparency and reporting, as discussed in the UN treaty, could play a crucial role in overcoming these obstacles. 

The burden of inaction, the study warns, will unfairly fall on the world’s least wealthy countries. 

To address the disproportionate impacts on the Global South, McCauley suggests one effective approach could be the implementation of financing mechanisms proposed within the treaty. These mechanisms have the potential to ensure equitable outcomes across regions with significant socio-economic disparities.

“In our research, we see that mobilizing investment in waste management and recycling infrastructure, directed especially to less wealthy countries currently lacking this infrastructure, would take a big bite out of plastic pollution,” says McCauley.

Last year, a fund was established at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, UAE, to assist nations grappling with the impacts of the climate crisis, representing promising news for developing countries and the international packaging industry. This initiative supports least wealthy nations in their transition toward a low-carbon economy, fostering sustainable development for the Global South.